Statistic
Order Description
https://www.tradingeconomics.com/ireland/tourist-arrivals
It is a very important project for this semester, I want to know if you can please focus on one unit as we are 6 in the group I also wanted to tell you to use excel because it is required please if you need for information please tell me. I send you the links for the arrival country that you have to be focus on.
Here are what I need for the graph / the number are example but the graph is the one that you need to know in order to process with this project
Time Prod. Y Moving Average Centered Moving Av. Time points Forecat Trend Seasonal Effect
Additive Model
Y – T = S + R Seasonal Effect
Multiplicative Model
Y / T = S * R Final forecast additive model: trend +seasonnal Final forecast mutiplicative: trend+ seasonal
2013 Q1 4.4 1
2013 Q2 9.8 2
2013 Q3 13.6 8.9 9.15 3 4.45 1.486338798
2013 Q4 7.8 9.4 9.6 4 -1.8 0.8125
2014 Q1 6.4 9.8 9.8 5 -3.4 0.653061224
2014 Q2 11.4 9.8 9.9 6 1.5 1.151515152
2014 Q3 13.6 10 10.05 7 3.55 1.353233831
2014 Q4 8.6 10.1 10.25 8 -1.65 0.83902439
2015 Q1 6.8 10.4 10.5 9 -3.7 0.647619048
2015 Q2 12.6 10.6 10.75 10 1.85 1.172093023
2015 Q3 14.4 10.9 11
2015 Q4 9.8 12
2016 Q1 13 11.33095238 7.680952381 7.264200222
2016 Q2 14 11.53571429 13.11071429 13.21168545
2016 Q3 15 11.74047619 15.64047619 16.43196616
2016 Q4 16 11.9452381 10.1202381 9.723679618
2017 Q1 17 12.15 8.5 7.789286349
2017 Q2 18 12.3547619 13.9297619 14.14972875
2017 Q3 19 12.55952381 16.45952381 17.57830491
2017 Q4 20 12.76428571 10.93928571 10.39040192
Central Tendency b= Slope 0.204761905
Mode 9.8 13.6 a= Intercept 8.669047619
Median 9.8
Mean 9.933333333
Spread
Standard deviation 3.23878017 3.238780167
Variance 10.489697
Min 4.4
Max 14.4
Q1 7.55
Q3 12.85
IQR (Q3-Q1) 5.3
Range (Max-Min) 10
Additive Model
Year 2013 2014 2015 Average Correction Adjusted Average
Q1 -3.4 -3.7 -3.55 0.1 -3.65
Q2 1.5 1.85 1.675 0.1 1.575
Q3 4.45 3.55 4 0.1 3.9
Q4 -1.8 -1.65 -1.725 0.1 -1.825
Time Series Analysis (Chapter 4)
Simple Time Based Regression
Example: Number of mobile cellular subscriptions (million), in USA, 2000-2014
1. Present the data in an appropriate graph and analyse it.
Analysis:
Trend:
Seasonalities:
Outliers:
2. Analyse the data base on the simple linear regression model Y = a + b*X
Year Mobile cellular subscriptions (Y) Time point (x) x2 xy
2000 110
2001 128
2002 141
2003 160
2004 184
2005 203
2006 229
2007 249
2008 261
2009 274
2010 285
2011 297
2012 304
2013 310
2014 317
Total ?y = 3452 ?x = 120 ?x2 = 1240 ?xy = 31997
b =
a =
Interpretation:
?
3. Forecast the number of mobile cellular subscriptions in USA in the next three years. Add your forecast to the line chart. Analyse the accuracy of your forecast.
Year Time point (x) Forecast for mobile cellular subscriptions
(Y = 104.96 + 15.63 * X)
2015 16 104.96 + 15.63 *16 =
2016 17 104.96 + 15.63 *17 =
2017 18 104.96 + 15.63 *18 =
Adding forecast to the line chart
Analysis of accuracy of the forecast:
Seasonal affect …. Diagram forecast
Why and how where is the problem. We have to compare the result to the competition in order, best way to compare table to measurement. When you compare best way to diagram forecast. Explanation for this.
Learning outcomes (as stated in the CRS): 1. Present the data in tables and charts. 2. Calculate and interpret a range of measures of central tendency and spread. 4. Summarize the data collected over time and conduct a forecast based on time series models. 5. Manage statistical research.
Organisation and methodology: 1. Students must organize himself. 2. Each students need to select a time series variable (= variable with observations collected over time), for example Arrival of tourist in Moldova.
Tasks & Weighting: 1. (5%) Obtain data for the variable chosen for at least the past 16 years (quarterly-collected data). 2. (50%, individual task) Within your group, each group member should choose one investigation unit. For the selected variable and investigation unit a. Present the data collected in an appropriate graph and evaluate the development of the variable over the time being analysed. (5%) b. Estimate and present (for example in a table) measures of central tendency and spread for the time series variable for this unit. (15%) c. Provide a forecast for the next two years through application of forecasting method(s) appropriate for the data collected. Analyse the outcomes of the forecast procedure. Comment on the accuracy of the forecast you estimated. comment on your findings. Evaluate what the results indicate about the situation in the industry/field of study being analysed. 4. (35%) Prepare a summary (academic report format) of the collected information. Your report should have the following structure: Assignment Front Sheet (can be found on Moodle/Box.net)
Cover page Table of Content Table of Tables/Figures (if applicable) I. Introduction (ca. 250 words) II. Data and methodology (ca. 500 words) III. Data analysis and forecasting (Task 2) III.1 Investigation unit 1 (max. 500 words) III.2 Investigation unit 2 (max. 500 words) III.3 Investigation unit 3 (max. 500 words) III.4 Investigation unit 4 (max. 500 words) III.5 Investigation unit 5 (max. 500 words) IV. Comparison of individual results (Task 3) (ca. 500 words) V. Conclusions and limitations (ca. 250 words) Reference list Appendix (if applicable)
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Special instructions: • Group allocation: students must organize themselves into groups of five by Monday, September 19th, 2016 (week 9) and confirm the group allocation to the lecturer. After this deadline, students without allocation will be assigned to a group by the lecturer.
• In each group, each student will be responsible for analysing the variable and forecasting the values for one particular investigation unit (individual task 2). In your final report, you have to indicate the investigation unit you were responsible for (for example, on the front page of your report or in the introduction chapter).
• In the final report, each student must present his/her individual calculations and analysis for the chosen variable and investigation unit (in chapter III). This part will then be graded as an individual achievement. The remaining chapters (I. Introduction, II. Data and methodology, IV. Comparison of individual results, and V. Conclusions and limitations) must be prepared by the whole group and will be graded as a group work.
• For the calculation of measures of central tendency and spread and for the forecasting Excel or any other statistical software can be used.
• Concerning Task 1 (data collection): 20 observations of quarterly collected data is just the minimum needed to conduct the study and to pass this task. If you wish to conduct a more detailed analysis, you may have to collect more data. If you would like to conduct a forecast based on additive/multiplicative model, you have to collect data with seasonal effects (quarterly).
Note : i dont need to make the introduction i just need the investigation units in order to do my introduction and conclusion with the group. i need the indivual part of the project.
Please feel free to contact me
• In the Introduction chapter (ca. 250 words), present briefly the field of study chosen for your project and the selected investigation units. Outline the aim and rationale of your project, answer the questions about what you plan to achieve and why do you want to conduct such a study.
• In the Data and methodology chapter (ca. 500 words), present and describe the data collected for Task 1 (you may use an Excel table and/or an appropriate graph) and the methodology used in the project. Include information about the data collection process (How was the data collected? What kind of data? Which currency/units? Etc.) and about methods and models which were used for analysing central tendency and spread and for forecasting.
• In the Data analysis and forecasting chapter, in the individual sections: 1. present the data collected for Task 1 (you may use an Excel table and/or an appropriate graph) and evaluate the development of the variable over the time (include the information about pattern/trend/outliers in the data); 2. present the measures for central tendency and spread (for calculation of these measures, apply the methods as introduced in class); 3. conduct a forecast based on model(s) presented in class, analyse the forecast outcomes and assess the accuracy of the prognoses obtained.
Please focus on the Individual part
Tasks and Criteria being graded in this Assignment Weight
DATA COLLECTION (sample size; quality and comparability of data)
5% (group task)
DATA PRESENTATION AND CALCULATION OF RESULTS (application of measures and models; use of the appropriate tables and charts)
25% (individual task)
ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION OF RESULTS (critical examination of results and diagrams)
25% (individual task)
COMPARISON OF INDIVIDUAL RESULTS (analysis and evaluation; use of the appropriate tables and charts)
10% (group task)
ACADEMIC REPORT (presentation and content of introduction, methodology, and conclusions and limitations chapters; presentation and format of text; layout; referencing)
35% (group task)
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• In the Comparison of individual results chapter (ca. 500 words), compare your results obtained for Task 2 and comment on similarities/differences in the outcomes of the individual research. • In the Conclusions and limitations chapter (ca. 250 words), include a summary of findings and a discussion of limitations of your study. Outline what kind of further information would be required in order to conduct a more comprehensive and detailed analysis. • As only the content of your final report will be graded, you must present all the calculations/interpretations from Excel file in the final report. Include all essential figures and tables from Excel directly in your report or in an appendix.
